A retrospective

So I stumbled across a little retort I made a year ago online, and felt, given the proximity to the new year, it was appropriate to put it up (why I neglected to put this up last year is beyond me…):

In reply to the following article: Microsoft’s Vision For the Future Gives Me Hope For Humanity

rudez90 said:

this video is depressing only because i dont think we will actually see this in fruition until a lot later than 2019

My response:

Cin said:
You sir, lack perspective. This is 10 years from now. Do you remember 1999? 1999 was the year the very first BlackBerry debuted, it was a 2 way pager, here’s a picture.

10 years later, it plays video, surfs the web, has a completely different interface, is in full color, plus much more, and weighs like 1.3 times the first BlackBerry’s weight (We found some old ones where I worked, they were pretty bulky).

The first iPod wasn’t debuted until 2001, becoming one of the first mp3 players with mass appeal and adoption. Back in 1999, Apple was struggling to stay afloat with their brand new iMac line (the ones that still had all the fruity colors). Now, 10 years later, Apple has expanded in all directions, dominated the digital music distribution market, and has released a handheld which has far-reaching implications for mobile computing.

1999 to 2009 is the difference between Windows 98 and Windows 7. It is the difference between Linux being primarily used by hobbyists and programmers, to being used in more and more consumer applications and even being sold at retail on desktops and notebooks.

Wikipedia was not founded until 2001, and in 1999, Google had only existed for a year, and was finally moving out of a garage in Menlo Park, California to an office in Palo Alto. As recently as May of 2002, there were only 26 million internet subscribers with broadband in the US (there were far less in 1999). Today that number is approaching 70 million [Note: It is currently over 75 million, fyi].

When you consider the fact that technology has an exponential growth pattern, and that the internet has increased the dissemination of ideas and information in ways that our forefathers never imagined possible, then yeah, 2019 is going to be very different from our world today, and I for one can’t wait.

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